Mood

My take on the election, for what it’s worth.

Planning  Joe Biden realized he was going to be a one-term president in July 2024.  It should have happened in July 2020, right after he got the nomination.  Knowing then he’d be a one trick pony, he could have been more aggressive on immigration and other issues, while grooming an heir apparent. But Democrats have never been good planners; as a Facebook friend said, this left Kamala cramming for the final, and she didn’t pass.

Motive I’d like to think most voters care about trans people, or abortion, or why immigrants come to this country.  It’s just that their pocketbook matters more.  They want a guy they think can do something to bring the price of housing down (he can’t), and give tax breaks to the rich—which matters to American middle class people, who believe their ship will be coming in Any. Day. Now.

David Brooks put it succinctly.  The last 40 years of public policy from either party have been all about helping the educated.  Immigration policy doesn’t affect them, because no one is coming to take white collar jobs.  Education policy has been all about getting more kids into four-year colleges, not trade schools.  Enter Donald Trump, who’s angry at life for enough reasons to keep an army of therapists busy for years. The middle class is angry at government because government forgot about them.  Game, set– perfect match.

Kamala  Making up ground in 100 days is nothing short of a miracle, and she inspired people to believe in this country, and in themselves.  That said, she needed to further distance herself sooner from Biden with more specific answers about future policy, and address the thorny past with better answers. 

The post-COVID inflation was just that—demand for goods was high, and supply low.  That’s inflation no president can control.  Say that, point out immigration was also atrocious under Trump, and gently remind people the Vice President’s main job is to call the White House daily and see who answers the phone (if it’s Joe, you have the rest of the day to yourself). Trump tried to make her a more important part of the team than vice presidents ever are, and she let him.  That hurt.

Mandate  Donald Trump won 51% of the popular vote.  That’s not a mandate, or historic; it’s getting by.  Of course he’s saying it’s something bigger than it is.  That’s his way of life. He’s wrong.

Turnout  This is the culprit no one wants to talk about.  In 2020, President Biden gets 81 million votes, President Trump gets 74 million.  In 2024, President Trump gets 71 million votes—so, about the same—but Vice President Harris gets 69 million.  That’s 12 million fewer voters on the Democratic side. 

Think those would have come in handy?

2028  The Republicans are loaded and locked for the next presidential election, with JD Vance and his Christian Nation team waiting in the wings.  Bill and Hillary dismantled the Democratic presidential farm system in 2008 to make sure she would get the nomination in 2016, and it’s never been restored. That leaves no Democrats waiting in the wings.  Pete Buttigieg was the hardest working Democrat on the campaign trail (next to Barack), but only being a Cabinet guy could make him light on administrative experience. Meanwhile, Liz Cheney and the last of the Real Republicans could become a strong spoiler group to JD and crew if they work at it for the next four years, and who wouldn’t like to see that?

Hey, a guy can dream.

Election 2024

Their pocketbook hopes
Lit their ballot box actions
And principles?  Less.

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